The question is: Will Putin start a nuclear war? Although the odds are low if NATO and the United States do not engage in direct military conflict, the risk increases as Putin’s frustration grows. Although Russian government officials haven’t stated explicitly why they might use nuclear weapons, they have made it clear they are considering the option. This is not just bluster. During the undeclared invasion of Crimea, Putin revealed that he was considering a nuclear alert.
Some analysts have suggested that the threat of nuclear war by Putin could have a deterrent effect on the West. They believe that Putin is attempting to scare the West by lowering the threshold for nuclear use. He also makes frequent references to nuclear weapons in his public speeches. This is a very dangerous idea that has been enshrined in Russia’s nuclear doctrine. No Soviet leader ever accepted the notion that nuclear war is a winnable conflict.
In fact, the likelihood of a nuclear war is less than 5 percent. Putin would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine only if they were needed, and would limit their use to low-yield tactical nuclear weapons to a single military target in order to minimize civilian casualties and discourage the US/NATO response. The threat could also shock the Ukrainian military, and terrify US and NATO publics. It’s not clear whether or not this is a reasonable strategy.
